The US-Iran relationship stands at a critical crossroads with Donald Trump's return to the White House. The incoming administration faces a complex landscape of nuclear tensions, regional conflicts, and deeply entrenched animosities that have defined four decades of adversarial relations. On December 5, Wikistrat CEO explored these critical dynamics and their implications with Iran expert Dr. Sina Azodi
Dr. Sina Azodi is a professorial lecturer of International Affairs at George Washington University, specializing in U.S.-Iran relations, nuclear nonproliferation, and Iranian foreign policy. A frequent media commentator, his work has appeared in The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, Arms Control Association, and Foreign Policy.
Key insights:
1. Historical Context and JCPOA Challenges
2018 U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA: Dr. Azodi detailed how the exit marked a turning point. Early Trump administration officials like James Mattis supported the agreement, but their departure paved the way for John Bolton and Mike Pompeo to spearhead opposition. “By May 2018, the cabinet members in favor of implementing the deal were all gone.”
Iran’s frustration with Europe: Despite Tehran adhering to the deal, it received no economic benefits due to U.S. sanctions deterring European companies. “Iran was implementing the agreement on its own, while not receiving the benefits.”
Progressive dismantling of JCPOA commitments: In response to unmet promises, Iran began reducing its obligations starting in May 2019, expanding its nuclear program step by step.
2. Internal Political Dynamics in Iran
Reformist administration under Masoud Pezeshkian: The new government is more open to dialogue with the U.S. than its predecessor. Key negotiators from the original JCPOA are back in leadership roles.
Entrenched hardliner resistance: The IRGC opposes lifting sanctions due to their financial interests. “If sanctions are lifted, those benefiting from sanctions—particularly the IRGC—will lose their businesses.”
Supreme Leader Khamenei’s cautious approval: While skeptical of the U.S., Khamenei has historically allowed negotiations. “Negotiations with the enemy is okay,” he recently stated, signaling a potential green light for talks.
3. Geopolitical Challenges and Regional Dynamics
Weakened regional influence: The decapitation of Hezbollah’s leadership and instability in Syria have significantly reduced Iran’s leverage. “Any weakening of Iran’s position in the region could further motivate Tehran to strike a deal with the United States.”
Strategic significance of Hezbollah: Described as “the queen of Iran’s geopolitical chess game,” Hezbollah remains central to Tehran’s regional strategy. Dr. Azodi emphasized that Iran would do “anything to protect Hezbollah.”
Rising debate over nuclear weapons: Once a taboo, discussions about crossing the nuclear threshold have become more public. “Two years ago, these comments were unimaginable, but now former officials openly discuss weaponization.”
4. Trump’s Second Term: Risks and Opportunities
Potential for a deal: Dr. Azodi suggested that Trump’s desire for a legacy-defining agreement could create openings for diplomacy. “He wants to be the one who had a photo shoot with Iranians and claim he changed the relationship.”
Absence of ideologues: Without figures like Pompeo and Bolton, Trump’s cabinet may be more conducive to negotiations. “These ideologues are gone now, replaced by loyalists.”
Major obstacles remain: Both Iranian hardliners and factions in Washington pose significant challenges. “There are many forces who benefit from adversarial relations, on both sides.”
5. Future Scenarios and Strategic Takeaways
Iran’s vulnerability under pressure: Sanctions and regional setbacks have weakened Iran’s position, making it more likely to pursue tactical agreements. However, Tehran remains wary of U.S. intentions. “They just want a short-term agreement that lifts sanctions, not a fundamental change in relations.”
Impact of maximum pressure policies: If Trump reinstates a full maximum pressure campaign, Iran might expand its nuclear program horizontally but is unlikely to weaponize due to the risks of preemptive strikes by the U.S. or Israel.
Domestic resilience and risks: Prolonged sanctions may lead to heightened domestic unrest but could also strengthen authoritarian measures. “If the expectation is that Iran will lie down and die, that won’t happen. The regime will just become more repressive.”
* This event is part of a series of webinars by Wikistrat on the global implications of Trump's new administration. Learn more about it here.
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