The recent German federal election has reshaped the country’s political landscape, raising questions about voter shifts, coalition prospects, and the future of Germany’s global role. How will the new government handle strained U.S. relations, NATO’s uncertainty, and the war in Ukraine? Could energy policy drive a break with European allies, and will Germany pivot toward China amid shifting power dynamics? On March 5, 2025, Wikistrat hosted a webinar with Dr. Andreas Umland to analyze these developments and their impact on Germany’s foreign policy and European stability.
Dr. Andreas Umland is a German political scientist specializing in contemporary Russian and Ukrainian history, as well as regime transitions. He is an analyst at the Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs and an Associate Professor of Political Science at the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy.
Webinar Recording
Key Insights
Domestic Politics: A New Balance of Power
Germany’s political landscape has undergone a significant shift following the recent elections. The left-wing BSW party, led by Sahra Wagenknecht, failed to enter the Bundestag, despite early projections of success. Meanwhile, the traditional Left Party (Die Linke) defied expectations by securing a stable position in parliament.
At the same time, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) doubled its parliamentary presence, emerging as the strongest opposition party. However, it remains politically isolated, with mainstream parties refusing to cooperate with it—a stark contrast to Austria, where far-right parties have successfully entered government.
The liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) failed to enter the new government, raising concerns about its long-term political viability. This marks a fundamental transformation in German politics, with traditional power structures shifting in response to voter concerns and geopolitical uncertainty.
High Voter Turnout and Political Polarization
The elections saw the highest voter turnout in 40 years (+6%), driven by several key issues:
Foreign policy concerns (Ukraine, Russia, and Germany’s role in NATO).
Migration and security fears, particularly following recent terror attacks involving migrants.
U.S. interference in German politics, including Elon Musk’s promotion of AfD and JD Vance’s controversial speech at the Munich Security Conference.
Additionally, the elections reinforced the deepening political divide between East and West Germany. While East Germany previously leaned toward the far left, it now strongly supports the far-right AfD, signaling persistent ideological differences more than three decades after reunification.
Germany’s Geopolitical Shifts
Germany and the U.S.: A Strained Alliance
Recent events have put U.S.-German relations under significant strain. The Biden administration's interference in German elections, particularly through high-profile endorsements and critiques, was widely viewed as an unprecedented diplomatic overreach. Meanwhile, the Trump administration’s foreign policy shift on Ukraine has further complicated the alliance.
While likely new Chancellor Friedrich Merz has historically been pro-American, he has already begun distancing himself from Trump’s policies. Instead, Germany appears to be strengthening its coordination with France and the UK, positioning itself as part of a European-led geopolitical strategy rather than a subordinate partner to Washington.
Ukraine Policy and Energy Strategy
Germany remains steadfast in its support for Ukraine, even as U.S. aid becomes increasingly uncertain. However, the challenge is no longer political will but resource constraints—Europe must now assess how to fill the military and intelligence gap left by potential U.S. disengagement.
Despite economic struggles, Germany has rejected any return to Russian energy dependence. While one operational string of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline remains intact, Berlin has deliberately chosen not to use it, signaling its commitment to a long-term shift away from Russian energy.
Germany’s Position on Frozen Russian Assets
A major point of contention is the fate of $300 billion in frozen Russian assets. Germany and its European allies strongly oppose returning these funds as part of a peace deal unless Russia fully withdraws from Ukraine.
However, the Trump administration appears to be considering offering these assets as a bargaining tool in negotiations with Russia. This move could spark a serious transatlantic clash, with Germany and other European nations resisting any attempts to reward Russia’s aggression.
Europe’s Security Future and Military Strategy
Defense Spending and Strategic Autonomy
Germany has significantly increased its defense budget, but the conversation is shifting from NATO compliance to European self-reliance. The possibility of a "European Defense Union" is gaining traction, with Germany potentially leading an independent security framework alongside France and the UK.
Nuclear Deterrence Strategy
While Germany is unlikely to pursue its own nuclear weapons program, it may seek greater nuclear protection from France and the UK. This shift reflects growing concerns over the reliability of U.S. security guarantees and the need for stronger European deterrence in the face of rising global threats.
Germany’s Evolving Global Strategy
China: A More Attractive Partner Amid U.S. Uncertainty?
As Germany’s relationship with the U.S. becomes more volatile, China is increasingly seen as a stable economic partner. However, past failures in German-Russian economic ties have made Berlin more cautious about deepening its dependence on Beijing.
While Germany will maintain trade and investment relations with China, it will also align with European security priorities to counter potential risks from Chinese expansionism. The balance between economic cooperation and strategic caution will shape Germany’s China policy in the coming years.
Conclusion: Germany at a Crossroads
Germany is entering a new political era—internally, with a resurgent left, rising far-right, and fading liberal party, and externally, with a shifting relationship with the U.S., a long-term commitment to Ukraine, and strategic recalibrations with China and Europe.
The fracturing of U.S.-European relations and uncertainty around NATO, frozen Russian assets, and the future of Ukraine are forcing Germany to step up as a European security leader. In the coming years, Germany’s ability to coordinate with France, the UK, and other European allies will determine whether Europe can establish strategic independence in a rapidly shifting world order.