The potential collapse of the Afghan government and the Taliban’s return to power following the US withdrawal could have severe implications for Pakistan, and the region at large. To assess these potential consequences of the US withdrawal, Wikistrat launched a series of three simulations. We are happy to share with you the first installment of the series, assessing the implications on Pakistan.
From June 14 to June 19, 2021, Wikistrat ran an online simulation exploring the impact of different post-US withdrawal scenarios on Pakistan. Over 50 South Asia experts took part in the simulation, which explored the potential implications of different scenarios and assessed their probability and risk for Pakistan and the region.
Download the report
Scenarios Assessed
Strategic Insights
A Refugee Crisis on Pakistan’s Borders is highly likely. Most experts believe that a refugee crisis on Pakistan’s borders six months after the US withdrawal is a highly likely scenario. This would pose major economic risks to Pakistan and would force it to face a difficult decision about how many refugees to let in.
The majority of the experts assess that it is unlikely that the Peace Process will come back to life, but it would be advantageous for Pakistan if there is an actual peace settlement. In addition, if Pakistani facilitation would indeed be part of future talks, Pakistan-US relations could improve as Washington would likely praise Islamabad for moving the peace process forward.
Most experts believe that it is plausible that India would reach out to the Taliban given New Delhi’s recognition that the Taliban is a powerful actor. However, any India-Taliban engagement is unlikely to advance very far due to deep strategic and ideological differences.
China’s outreach to the Taliban could benefit Pakistan and boost Pakistan-China relations. Such a move would deliver a political boost to Pakistan, as most Pakistanis support CPEC and want it expanded to Afghanistan and would provide economic opportunities for Pakistan by strengthening connectivity with Afghanistan.
Many experts believe a Taliban takeover of Kabul would poison US-Pakistan relations as Washington and Islamabad would blame each other for an outcome that is damaging to the interests of both countries. Such a development would also present problems for Pakistan.
Participation Breakdown
美国学位证_IUB毕业证成绩单+Q微信2648957830印地安那大学伯明顿分校学位证_成绩单_办理IUB文凭学历认证Indiana University,BloomingtonQQ/微信2648957830办理毕业证，成绩单，教育部留信认证，使馆认证，回国人员证明，修改成绩单+信封申请学校，offer录取通知书，在读证明，大学学位证书，毕业文凭。
★★主营项目：
◆办理真实使馆公证(即留学回国人员证明,免费申请货后付款,不成功不收费!!!)
◆办理教育部国外学历学位认证。(网上可查、永久存档、快速稳妥,回国发展,考公务员,落户,进国企,外企,创业,无忧愁)
◆办理各国各大学文凭(世界名校一对一专业服务,可全程监控跟踪进度)
◆提供整套申请学校材料
◆可以提供钢印、水印、烫金、激光防伪、凹凸版、最新版大学毕业证、真实大使馆教育部留信认证，100%让您绝对放心满意。
【真实可查】—【永久存档】—【安全可靠】—【值得信赖】
八年从业经验,专业指导,私人定制,倾心为您解决留学毕业回国各种疑难问题
教育部学历学位认证服务:
做到真实永久存档，网上轻易可查，绝对对客户的资料进行保密，登录核实后再付款。
留信认证的作用：
2：同时对留学生所学专业等级给予评定。
3：国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书
4：这个入网证书并且可以归档到地方
5：凡是获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安部网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人 才网入库信息。
6：个人职称评审加20分。
7：个人信誉贷款加10分。
8：在国家人才网主办的全国网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家500强等高端企业选择人才。