As 2025 unfolds, the geopolitical landscape remains unexpected. From the assassination of pivotal figures like Abu Mohammad al-Julani, destabilizing Syria’s fragile recovery, to Trump’s dramatic return to diplomacy with a historic visit to Moscow, these wildcard scenarios underscore the fragility and unpredictability of today’s world, challenging us to prepare for the unforeseen
Introduction
As the year 2024 draws to a close and we step into 2025, the latter half of 2024 will be remembered as a period of extraordinary upheaval. Key events, such as the failed assassination attempt against U.S. president-elect Donald Trump in July, Ukraine's decisive Kursk offensive in August, the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in September, and the dramatic fall of the Assad regime in December, unfolded with remarkable intensity. Each of these events, significant in isolation, converged within months to reshape the geopolitical landscape, marking a turning point in global affairs.
As we enter 2025, Wikistrat proudly presents five potential wildcard scenarios to stimulate strategic thinking about the fragility and unpredictability of the current geopolitical order. Unlike more predictable scenarios—such as a hypothetical Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear sites, which are rooted in clear strategic intent and existing tensions—wildcards are highly unpredictable, low-probability events with the potential for high impact. These scenarios fall outside conventional expectations but hold the power to redefine the status quo in significant ways.
Exploring these wildcard scenarios offers a crucial intellectual exercise. It compels us to consider the unexpected yet plausible events that could disrupt global stability and force a reevaluation of established assumptions. By analyzing these scenarios, we can uncover overlooked dynamics and the roles of key actors, fostering a more nuanced understanding of the forces shaping the geopolitical environment. This approach not only encourages creative and unconventional thinking but also equips policymakers and strategists to anticipate the cascading effects of unexpected developments, preparing them to navigate the challenges and opportunities that such upheavals may present.
Wildcard 1: The Assassination of Ahmed al-Sharaa
Scenario Outline
A successful plot to assassinate Ahmed al-Sharaa, better known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani, unfolds in a devastating suicide car bombing eerily reminiscent of the 2005 killing of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafic Hariri. The attack, occurring in central Damascus, shatters the fragile unification process in Syria. Al-Sharaa, viewed as a pivotal figure in rebuilding a cohesive post-Assad Syria, becomes a symbolic and strategic target. Initial confusion about the perpetrators leads to competing claims and accusations, with fingers pointed at Iran, Russia, and rogue factions.
The Drivers
The fragility of Syria’s rebuilding efforts, coupled with the centrality of al-Sharaa in fostering a tenuous unity, made him a natural target for actors dissatisfied with the direction of Syria’s future. Regional power struggles between Iran, Russia, and other stakeholders exacerbated tensions, as each sought to secure their influence in post-Assad Syria. Additionally, the involvement of factions with vested interests in perpetuating chaos contributed to this violent outcome.
Strategic Takeaways
The scenario underscores the fragility of Syria’s tentative recovery and the pivotal role individuals can play in post-conflict stabilization. Al-Sharaa’s death illustrates how external actors like Iran and Russia, seeking to maintain leverage, can exploit such fragility for strategic ends.
Wildcard 2: Trump Goes to Moscow
Scenario Outline
In a dramatic diplomatic overture, U.S. President Trump makes a historic visit to Moscow in 2025, marking a geopolitical shift akin to Nixon’s 1972 visit to China. The surprise summit resulted in a preliminary agreement to freeze hostilities in Ukraine, with Russia signalling a willingness to negotiate peace under certain conditions. While heralded by the Trump Adminstration as a bold step toward de-escalating global tensions, the move sent shockwaves through NATO, with European allies expressing unease over the perceived sidelining of Ukraine and divergence in transatlantic priorities.
The Drivers
Trump’s return to power in 2025 brought an immediate shift in U.S. foreign policy, prioritizing "America First" pragmatism over traditional alliances. The Kremlin, seeing an opportunity to influence Trump’s instinct for deal-making, leveraged backchannel communications to propose direct talks.
At the same time, Russia’s strategic position was under strain. Despite recent battlefield gains in Ukraine, a worsening manpower shortage and escalating economic pressures left Moscow increasingly dependent on finding alternative paths to consolidate its position. Trump’s electoral victory was seen as a potential lifeline, prompting Putin to explore negotiations as a way to secure concessions without further escalation or mobilization.
Strategic Takeaways
The scenario, while dramatic, underscored the unpredictable nature of Trump’s foreign policy and the tenuous balance of power in a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape. It also brings to light three aspects we are likely to see in the upcoming years: Trump’s administration focusing on building alliances with the aim of counterbalancing China, the high likelihood of deepened fractures within NATO, and Trump’s willingness to sidestep traditional channels, reflecting a transactional approach to foreign policy, prioritizing immediate strategic gains over long-term stability.
Wildcard 3: The Death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei
Scenario Outline
Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, passed away at the age of 86 from natural causes, plunging the Islamic Republic into a leadership crisis, setting the stage for a fierce power struggle between reformists advocating for political and economic liberalization and the conservative establishment, led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), seeking to consolidate its dominance.
Internally, Khamenei’s passing removed the last figure capable of arbitrating between Iran’s fractured political factions. The reformists seized the opportunity to call for sweeping changes, while the IRGC and hardliners, emboldened by their military power and entrenched economic networks, sought to cement their control. These dynamics created a perfect storm, with competing visions for Iran’s future clashing in a volatile environment.
The Drivers
In this scenario, Khamenei’s death, although natural, shade light to the vulnerability of the regime. Domestically, Iran is grappled with a severe economic crisis marked by skyrocketing inflation, widespread unemployment, and public discontent. Internationally, Tehran’s position had eroded significantly, with the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, the military defeat of Hezbollah, and the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon. Compounding these challenges was the emergence of a hawkish U.S. administration poised to reimplement a "maximum pressure" campaign against Tehran.
Strategic Takeaways
Khamenei’s death, while inevitable, has the potential unraveling of the Islamic Republic’s decades-long status quo. The scenario underscores the complexity of Iran’s political landscape, highlighting the presence of diverse actors with conflicting interests. This diversity makes it clear that any action taken against Iran could trigger unpredictable downstream consequences. The new U.S. administration’s hardline stance could amplify these pressures, pushing Iran toward either deeper isolation or increasingly desperate measures, including heightened nuclear brinkmanship.
Wildcard 4: The First AI-Driven Disinformation Terror Campaign
Scenario Outline
A European country experienced an unprecedented terror attack orchestrated by non-state actors wielding advanced artificial intelligence tools. The attack began with a coordinated disinformation campaign using high-quality deep fake audio, video, and written messages. These fake media artifacts appeared on hacked national news channels, social media platforms, and government communication networks. The content falsely reported escalating violence and urged citizens to remain indoors, sparking widespread panic.
The fabricated crisis disrupted flights, paralyzed public services, and caused severe traffic congestion as people scrambled to purchase food, water, and other essentials. Millions of citizens effectively locked themselves in their homes for days, believing the country was under attack. Though order was eventually restored, the psychological, economic, and societal damage was profound, highlighting a new era of terror where information itself became the weapon.
The Drivers
This scenario highlights the widespread and speed of proliferation of advanced AI tools capable of generating hyper-realistic deep fakes and automating large-scale disinformation campaigns. The accessibility of such technology allowing non-state actors to execute a sophisticated operation with minimal resources compared to traditional terrorist activities.
The attack exploited pre-existing vulnerabilities in digital infrastructure, a fragmented media ecosystem prone to spreading misinformation, and public distrust in official institutions. It also leveraged the ubiquity of social media platforms to amplify panic in real time, demonstrating how AI-enabled tools can turn information into a potent weapon for destabilization.
Strategic Takeaways
This first-of-its-kind terror attack exemplifies how it is becoming easier than ever before to exploit pre-existing vulnerabilities in digital infrastructure, a fragmented media ecosystem prone to spreading misinformation, and public distrust in media and government institutions. It also shows the ubiquity of social media platforms to amplify panic in real time, demonstrating how AI-enabled tools can turn information into a potent weapon for destabilization.
Wildcard 5: A U.S. Secretary of Defense Visits Taiwan
Scenario Outline
In an unexpected move, the U.S. Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, visited Taiwan in 2025, marking the highest-level defense-related visit to the island in decades. The visit came just days after an unprecedented PLA exercise, during which a record number of Chinese aircraft crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait and penetrated Taiwan’s northern, southwestern, and eastern Air Defense Identification Zone.
During the visit, the Secretary Hegseth delivered a public statement reaffirming the United States’ commitment to Taiwan’s defense, asserting that the U.S. would stand by Taiwan in the event of an intrusion. While stopping short of outlining specific measures, he emphasized the U.S. intention to provide Taiwan with the means to protect itself. The visit immediately escalated tensions across the Strait, with Beijing responding by announcing a new series of military exercises encircling Taiwan.
The Drivers
The scenario was driven by the arrival of a new, hawkish U.S. administration that adopted a firm stance toward China. Key appointments, such as Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and Mike Waltz in national security roles, signaled a shift toward a more aggressive posture in defense of Taiwan. The administration prioritized countering Chinese influence and emphasized a robust Indo-Pacific strategy centered on deterring Beijing.
Simultaneously, Xi Jinping’s increasingly nationalistic ideology and ambitions to cement his legacy heightened cross-strait tensions. The PLA’s provocative exercises and record-breaking incursions into Taiwan’s airspace reflecting Beijing’s intent to assert dominance and test Taiwan’s defense capabilities.
Strategic Takeaways
This scenario highlights the growing volatility of the U.S.-China-Taiwan triangle, illustrating how high-profile diplomatic moves can act as both a signal of commitment and a catalyst for geopolitical instability. Xi Jinping’s ideological commitment to national rejuvenation and territorial integrity is likely to drive further PLA provocations, testing the new Trump’s administration policies, increasing the likelihood of military posturing between the U.S and China.
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